STUDY ON RISK WEIGHT OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECT AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS

Abstract

With the increasing changes of economic structure and society requirements, Chinese government need to pay more attention on the public management activities, correspondingly, the government's financial pressure also gradually increased. The emergence of the PPP (public-private-partnership) model gives Chinese government a new idea to increase the construction of Public facilities. The introduction of social capital also alleviates Chinese local government's financial embarrassment. However, as long as it is the construction of an engineering project, it will inevitably contain various risk factors. This study focuses on the three stages of risk management, namely risk identification, risk assessment and risk response. Considering the long-term and complexity of PPP mode, this study focus on the national politics, market economy and the PPP project, based on three aspects to analyze the risk factors, and the PPP project (based on time sequence) is divided into project preparation, project construction, project operation and project over four stages, the risk of any level and any stage of the out of control, is the inevitable result of an adverse effect on the rest of the stage, finally have serious consequences for the government and the private sector. Therefore, this paper aims to explore a set of effective risk management methods and adapt them to China's PPP mode by studying the risk factors at all levels and stages of PPP project process.

Paper first carries on the qualitative research, through literature and the combination of Delphi method, with the help of experts in the related fields of knowledge and experience, to identify the risk factors in the PPP project, this includes the risk on the level of 14 countries, 7 levels of market risk and the risk of 23 project levels. Through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the objective is to determine the weight of each risk factor through the layered analysis method, and rank the risk factors with the weight as an index, so as to prepare for the subsequent research. Then quantitative research is carried out, and SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) is established to explore the correlation between various risk factors. The research results in this link also contain the weight coefficient of risk factors, which can be used to combine with the research results of AHP method. Finally, the research results are discussed and relevant countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward.

This study takes the risk management of PPP projects in China as the main content. The index matrix is derived from the mathematical calculation of AHP, and the data is mainly derived from questionnaires. The statistical analysis software used were SPSS19, YAAHP and AMOS21, which were respectively used for factor analysis, reliability and validity test, regression analysis, index matrix operation and structural equation model analysis.