The impact of population aging on consumption structure: a case of Southwest and South China

Abstract

Since China entered an aging society at the end of the twentieth century, the proportion of the elderly population has been increasing and the aging rate has been accelerating, and it has become one of the countries with the fastest population aging development in the world. The deepening of population aging means the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, which will have an important impact on my country's economic development. Since 2008, world economic growth has slowed down. With the tightening of the international market, my country's economic growth model that mainly relies on investment and import and export has been affected, and the problem of insufficient domestic consumption has begun to become prominent. The lack of domestic consumption will make economic growth lack of robustness and sustainability. Therefore, increasing domestic consumption is very important for stimulating economic growth. Especially in the context of the gradual deepening of the aging of the population in our country, the elderly, as a special consumer group, have different consumption patterns from people of other ages. The elderly has special needs for various goods and services, so the accelerating rate of population aging is bound to affect my country's consumption structure.

China has a vast territory, and previous studies on population aging have used the entire country as the research object. The empirical results obtained cannot be well applied to specific provinces and regions, due to the important strategic and economic status of Southwest and South China, to understand the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of urban residents in southwest and south China has great significance. Therefore, this article uses consumption as a starting point to study the impact of population aging of southwest and south China on urban residents’ consumption structure, and corresponding suggestions based on the results of the research which are intended to play a certain reference role in coordinating the development of population and economy.

This article first introduces the mechanism of population aging on the consumption structure of residents in detail and explains the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of residents from a theoretical level; secondly, The present situation and characteristics of population aging and resident consumption structure in southwest and south China are described in detail.Next, with urban residents in the southwest and south of China as the main body, select the panel data of five provinces in southwest and south of China from 2000 to 2018, Through the establishment of a suitable dynamic panel regression model to explore the impact of population aging on seven types of consumption expenditure of urban residents. Here is not only a regression on the proportion of commodity consumption, but also a regression on consumption expenditures to make the regression results completer and more reliable. The main conclusions are as follows: First, China's aging population has reduced the overall consumption of food, clothing and daily necessities and services, education, and entertainment. Second, China's aging population will increase consumer spending on housing, healthcare, transportation, and communications. Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations according to the empirical results of the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of urban residents in southwest and south China.