Borriboon Thitakamol, advisorNiwat Klinngam2014-05-052014-05-051987http://repository.nida.ac.th/handle/662723737/294Thesis (Ph.D. (Population and Development))--National Institute of Development Administration, 1987.The main purpose of this study was to investigate the consequences of population changes on educational and manpower planning as well as on the financial need for compulsory education in Thailand during 1986-1996. To attain the purpose, the structural model to forecast the numbers of pupil enrollment in compulsory education for seven regions was firstly proposed and computerized. The related parameters in the model for each region were then seperately estimated and forecasted.Having simulated the forecasted parameters in the computerized model, the followings were found:(1) The numbers of pupils at first enrollment were fluctuated correspondingly to the changes of population in each region. That is the numbers of pupil enrollment of Bangkok and Vicinity region and the Southern region gradually increased whereas those of the Upper Central region and the Northeastern region gradually declined. Astonishingly, those of the Eastern region, and the Western region gradually increased during the first ten years after that they gradually declined. Unsimilarly, those of the Northern region seemed to be constant during the first ten years before that they increased at a certain year and soon after they remained constant again.(2) Similarly, when the pupil/teacher ratio was taken into account and the projected numbers of teacher requirement was calculated, it was shown that most patterns of teacher requirement were also fluctuated as likely as those of population changes. The Northeastern region required the most teachers for compulsory education. Meanwhile the Northern region, the Southern region respectively. On the contrary, the Upper Central region had got excessive teachers for long time whereas the Eastern region, the Western region and the Bangkok and Vicinity region got surplus teachers at the last few years of the forecast.(3) Simultaneously, the public financial needs for compulsory education of the Bangkok and Vicinity region and the Southern region were gradually increased during the year of forecast whereas those of the Upper Central region the Western region and the Eastern region was gradually declined. Having compared the financial needs among region, it was shown that the total budget for compulsory education of the Northeastern region was the highest (277,723 million baht per year). Meanwhile the lower ones were the Northern region (235,646 million), the Bangkok and Vicinity region (158,878 million), the Western region (82,208 million), the Upper Central region (61,0550 and the Eastern region (50,296 million) respectively.[xviii, 219] leaves.application/pdfengThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.Compulsory educationForecastsPopulation forecastingLC 136 .T5 N649Education, Compulsory -- ThailandEducation and state -- ThailandManpower policy -- Thailandtext--thesis--doctoral thesis