Yuthana SethapramoteDau, Thi Mai Lein2023-05-122023-05-122018b207818https://repository.nida.ac.th/handle/662723737/6412Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--National Institute of Development Administration, 2018This dissertation aims to comprehensively investigate international macroeconomic linkages among ASEAN-5 countries as well as among ASEAN-5 countries with the rest of the world in a multinational system. Through estimating Global VAR models, the results show several key findings: 1) Generally, ASEAN-5 economies generally respond strongest to real GDP shocks from China, Japan and the United State; especially, China has played an increasing role to ASEAN-5 economy over the study period. However, the responsiveness of ASEAN countries to external shocks varies across countries. Additionally, there exist intra-regional spillovers within ASEAN-5 economies. Regarding to the determinants of ASEAN-5 countries’ economic fluctuation, East Asian countries and the United State have played an increasing role. In particular, the main determinants from East Asia countries are real factors, while those from countries outside the region are financial factors. 2) With a specific focus on external policy spillovers, it finds that both intra- and inter-regional fiscal and monetary spillovers have significant impacts on ASEAN-5 countries. External expansionary fiscal shocks generally cause a significant increase in ASEAN-5 countries’ real GDP; especially, the effects of fiscal spillovers from other East Asian countries (especially, China) are much stronger than those from advanced Western countries. In contrast to fiscal spillover, the effects of monetary spillovers are inconclusive and monetary spillovers from advanced Western countries are stronger than those from East Asian countries. Interestingly, intra-regional policy spillovers among ASEAN countries are also found; particularly, intraregional monetary spillover seems to be stronger than intra-regional fiscal spillovers. 3) Due to inverse impact of external spillovers on ASEAN-5 countries which indicates the need of policy coordination, the study tried to investigate the impact of introducing a common interest rate on ASEAN-5 countries’ real GDP. Generally, a common interest rate would lead to higher GDP growth rate in all member countries in the long run. However, how much each member country could gain depends on which interest rate is applied; such as Singapore and the Philippines seem to gain more from a relatively higher interest rate while a relatively lower common interest rate would lead higher growth rate in the case of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.138 leavesapplication/pdfengผลงานนี้เผยแพร่ภายใต้ สัญญาอนุญาตครีเอทีฟคอมมอนส์แบบ แสดงที่มา-ไม่ใช้เพื่อการค้า-ไม่ดัดแปลง 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)MacroeconomicsASEANtext--thesis--doctoral thesis10.14457/NIDA.the.2018.130