Supply of and demand for professional nurses in Thailand during 1988-2000

Abstract

This study is aimed at projecting the numbers of professional nurses produced and remaining in the labor force, annual demand for nurses during 1988-2000, the nursing activities and the factors influencing the premature loss of nurses from the labor force.

The projection techniques are used in demand and supply analysis. Factor Analysis, Discriminant Analysis, and Multiple Classification Analysis are used for finding out factors influencing premature loss of the professional nurses.

The results of the study are : the projected numbers of graduates in 2000 are 4672, 4842 and 5358 under the low (1.15 percent), the medium (2.16 percent), and the high (5 percent) levels of admission increment assumptions, respectively.

If the admission increment follows the low level assumption, the numbers of nurses remaining in the labor force in 2000 under the low (2.11 percent), the medium (3.5 percent), and the high (5.87 percent) levels of nurses'loss rate assumptions will be 73,360, 65,377 and 54,146, respectively. Under the medium level of admission increment assumption, these numbers in 2000 for the three levels of loss rate assumption will increase to 73,846, 69,693 and 63,105, respectively. If the admission increment increases to the high level assumption, in 2000 the numbers of nurses will increase to 75,286, 71,108 and 64,487 under the three levels of loss rate assumption, respectively.

The demand for professional nurses based on the trends of nurses per 100,000 population in 2000 will be 70,103, 71,127 and 75,132 for the low, the medium, and the high levels of population growth assumptions, respectively. Moreover, if one professional nurse is assigned to work at each health center nationwide, the demand for nurses in 2000 will increase to 71,349, 72,373 and 76,378 for the three levels of population growth assumptions, respectively.

As for the labor market requirement of the professional nurses, even if the nurses' loss rate follows the high level assumption, the shortage will occur throughout the projection period.

Regarding the nursing activities, it is found that within 8 hours of working the nurses spent 2 hours 45 minutes for direct care, 3 hours 59 minutes for indirect care, and 1 hour 16 minutes for personal activity.

As for the factors affecting the nurses' intention to resign or transfer of job, the determining factors are : the problems of work performance which include policy and administrative problems, problems of working in shifts, problems concerning superordinates, and problems of work characteristics. Moreover, work experience, salary and numbers of beds in the wards also affect the nurses' intention to resign or transfer of their job.