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Regime-switching housing price cycle in China

by Lu, Xiaoman

Title:

Regime-switching housing price cycle in China

Author(s):

Lu, Xiaoman

Advisor:

Yuthana Sethapramote

Degree name:

Master of Economics

Degree level:

Master's

Degree department:

School of Development Economics

Degree grantor:

National Institute of Development Administration

Issued date:

2018

Publisher:

National Institute of Development Administration

Abstract:

This paper aims to examine the house price cycle at the province level of China using the three-regime Markov-switching model. Our findings indicate that, in Xinjiang, Chongqing and Jiangsu, there was no secular slowdown in growth since the rapid-growth regime re-emerged at some stage. While during economic downturn and rapid economic growth, house prices fall and grow fastest, respectively, in the central region. However, during normal growth regime, house prices increase fastest in the eastern provinces. These findings indicate regional heterogeneity in China. We also investigated determinant factors of regime switching in each region. Our results show that output growth and real lending rate are two common factors in the co-movement of smooth probabilities of recession. Therefore, it should be possible to apply a uniform housing policy for the whole country, but only when house prices are in recession. However, in most cases, the government should implement a different policy according to the local conditions and determinant factors of each region.

Description:

Thesis (M.Econ.)--National Institute of Development Administration, 2018

Subject(s):

Prices -- China
Pricing -- China
Price regulation -- China

Keyword(s):

e-Thesis
House price cycle
Markov switching model

Resource type:

Thesis

Extent:

49 leaves

Type:

Text

File type:

application/pdf

Language:

eng

Rights:

ผลงานนี้เผยแพร่ภายใต้ลิขสิทธิ์ของสถาบันบัณฑิตพัฒนบริหารศาสตร์

Rights holder(s):

National Institute of Development Administration

URI:

http://repository.nida.ac.th/handle/662723737/4522
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  • GSDE: Theses [39]
Copyright © National Institute of Development Administration | สถาบันบัณฑิตพัฒนบริหารศาสตร์
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Tel: (+662) 727-3737, (+622) 727-3743    Email: services@nida.ac.th
 

 

Copyright © National Institute of Development Administration | สถาบันบัณฑิตพัฒนบริหารศาสตร์
Library and Information Center
Tel: (+662) 727-3737, (+622) 727-3743    Email: services@nida.ac.th
 

 

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