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- ItemEnvironmental cost of hydropower development case study : Xaiyaburi Hydropower Dam, LAO PDR.Phongphat Phanthavong; Adis Israngkura (National Institute of Development Administration, 2019)The controversial impacts of hydropower development are still debatable, especially when dams are constructed in the mainstream of multinational rivers. This study examines the impacts of the Xaiyaburi hydropower project constructed in the mainstream of the Mekong River in Bolikhamxay province, Lao PDR. Results from our Cost and Benefit Analysis indicated that the Xaiyaburi Dam is financially feasible with a positive financial net present value (FNPV) of $5,797,169,153 in its lifetime. In addition, this project is expected to earn an 8.26% financial internal rate of return (FIRR) per year; $1 spent as an investment in this project is expected to generate financially $2.18 in return. However, only the result from the financial cost and benefit analysis (FCBA) might not be enough to fully understand the impacts of hydropower development. We, therefore, extended the CBA analysis into broader issues by including the opportunity cost related to environmental impacts caused by the project into consideration. The opportunity cost considered in this study consisted of 2 categories, Used and Non-Used Value. While the Used Value is measured by the opportunity cost related to land loss, fish stock reduction and CO2 emission, NonUsed Value is measured by opportunity cost related to the local peoples’ willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental attributes improvement. Similar to the FCBA, we found economic feasibility for the project. It is estimated to yield an economic net present value (ENPV) of $545,113,968 in its lifetime, and $1 spent as an investment in this project is expected to generate only $1.05 in return. However, when considering the economic IRR value, we found infeasible growth of the project (0.96% of economic IRR). Moreover, the project NPV is highly sensitive to the change of revenue (1% reduction in revenue is expected to decrease the value of the ENPV by 19.60%) and the change of the Carbon tax (1% reduction in revenue is expected to decrease the value of the ENPV by 5.06%) respectively. Results of this study provided us with useful quantitative information for the government of Laos and other countries along the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) to assist in decision making on the hydropower production plan, especially, to a project that will be constructed in the mainstream of a multinational river to ensure the implementation of an environmentally friendly hydropower program.
- Itemเพศและพฤติกรรมการออมใน สปป.ลาวManiphone Suensom; ทองใหญ่ อัยยะวรากูล (สถาบันบัณฑิตพัฒนบริหารศาสตร์, 2022)ปัจจุบัน งานวิจัยเชิงประจักษ์ในประเทศลาวที่ศึกษาเกี่ยวกับการออมของภาคครัวเรือนยังมีไม่เพียงพอ การศึกษาส่วนใหญ่ใช้ข้อมูลของกลุ่มตัวอย่างในจังหวัดและการออมในรูปแบบเงินสดเนื่องจากข้อจำกัดทางด้านข้อมูล งานวิจัยนี้จึงถือเป็นงานศึกษาครั้งแรกของประเทศลาวที่ศึกษาเกี่ยวกับผลกระทบของเพศของหัวหน้าครัวเรือนในประเทศลาวต่อพฤติกรรมการออมของครัวเรือนในรูปแบบการออมที่เป็นทางการและไม่เป็นทางการ โดยใช้แบบจำลองโพรบิทและแบบจำลองโทบิท ในการวิเคราะห์ข้อมูลจากกลุ่มตัวอย่างจำนวน 10,741 ครัวเรือนทั่วประเทศ จากชุดข้อมูลการสำรวจแรงงานในประเทศ สปป.ลาว ที่ศูนย์สถิติแห่งประเทศลาวจัดสำรวจขึ้นเป็นครั้งแรก ผลจากการศึกษาชี้ให้เห็นว่าแม้หัวหน้าครัวเรือนเพศชายมีแนวโน้มที่จะออมและมีจำนวนเงินออมสูงกว่าหัวหน้าครัวเรือนเพศหญิงอย่างมีนัยสำคัญทางสถิติ แต่หัวหน้าครัวเรือนเพศหญิงกลับมีแนวโน้มที่จะลงทุนในสินทรัพย์ประเภทบ้านสูงกว่า การศึกษานี้ สามารถชี้ให้เห็นมุมมองที่ชัดเจนเกี่ยวกับขอบเขตของอิทธิพลที่ส่งผลต่อการออม และสร้างความเข้าใจที่ลึกซึ้งถึงปัจจัยด้านเพศที่ส่งผลต่ออัตราการออมในระดับครัวเรือนของลาว เพื่อเป็นแนวทางในการวางแผนระดมเงินออมและเป็นแนวทางในการกำหนดนโยบายทางการเงินและการลงทุน
- ItemA feasibility study of developing a retirement community project in ThailandLuo, Yiting; Udomsak Seenprachawong (National Institute of Development Administration, 2022)Population aging was a global concern as many countries, including Thailand, had already become the aged society. However, most of the real estate developers were still focusing on conventional residential projects which were not suitable for elderly due to lack of facilities and services. Currently, the majority of Thai elderly had to choose between living under family support or moving into public-operated retirement community, in which their living condition could hardly be ensured. This study aimed to explore the possibility of private sector real estate developers to engage in the retirement project by determining the financial feasibility of a private-operated retirement project using cost benefit analysis. Market survey and semi-structured interviews were conducted prior to the analysis, and we found that under the current market demand, a retirement project could generate a positive net present value, however the return on investment was lower than conventional real estate project. Hence, financial support from the public sector might be needed in order to better motivate the private developers to engage in the retirement projects.
- ItemRelationship between financial and real sectors: implications for stable economic development [evidence from Thailand]Khalil, Muhammad Azhar; Santi Chaisrisawatsuk (National Institute of Development Administration, 2018)Economic real sector is essential for growth and development as its activities persuade progress of economic output. The sector generates better outcomes if it is accompanied with a healthier financial system; thus, advancement of financial sector is a means for the growth of real sector. This study reexamine the relationship between financial and real sectors of Thailand with the volatility analysis of GDP caused by development of financial market. The GARCH Model, Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration test, and vector error correction model (VECM) approach were employed on time series data over the first quarter of year 1993 until the second quarter of year 2017. Consistent with past studies, both the elements of capital market (i.e. bonds and stock markets) and the money market (i.e. credit to private sector by banks) bear a positive relationship to the GDP. Our results show that both markets help promoting economic growth. We can infer that differences in financial market composition and institutions do matter, as these three major sections – bond market, stock market, and banks– do not simultaneously develop and grow, but at a different level of their growth paths they complement each other. Our findings suggest that there exists interdependency between real sector and financial sector which in turn enlightens the effect of financial market development on the GDP growth.
- ItemDeterminants of antenatal care utilization in Lao PDRPalath Phanthoulack; Saran Sarntisart (National Institute of Development Administration, 2017)The healthy state of mother and child is very important and if well-addressed may result in a greater potential in terms of human capital as well as in the labor force. This can further positively affect productivity and the economic growth rate. The purpose of this research is to study the factors influencing its optimal attendance, and to assess how these factors differ between regions. To achieve these objectives, secondary data were obtained from the Lao Social Indicator Survey (LSIS) conducted during 2011-2012 at both the national and regional levels. The logistic regression model was employed for analysis. The results revealed that maternal education level, the wealth of households (middle, rich, richest), mass media exposure (watched TV every day and listen to the radio less than once a week), and maternal residence were positively associated to probability of attending ANC services at least four times. Furthermore, maternal ethnicity (Khmu and Hmong), maternal religion (animist), marital status (separated) and women who reside in a southern region made it less and had lower probability of attendance in Lao PDR. The study recommends that the Lao government should encourage education among women, particularly beyond primary school level, and the enhancement of awareness among illiterate women about the benefits of using maternal health care services.
- ItemThe influence of fiscal and financial policies on upgrading of regional industrial structureJing, Chen; Apirada Chinprateep (National Institute of Development Administration, 2022)Policies to encourage economic development are different in different regions. Studies at home and abroad show that the financial development level and local GDP output value are relatively high in places with a high proportion of tertiary industry such as financial agglomeration and high-tech development level, and vice versa.