Macroeconomic linkage and policy coordination in Asean : a global var analysis
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2018
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2561
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Edition
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eng
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application/pdf
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138 leaves
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b207818
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National Institute of Development Administration. Library and Information Center
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Dau, Thi Mai Lein (2018). Macroeconomic linkage and policy coordination in Asean : a global var analysis. Retrieved from: https://repository.nida.ac.th/handle/662723737/6412.
Title
Macroeconomic linkage and policy coordination in Asean : a global var analysis
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Abstract
This dissertation aims to comprehensively investigate international
macroeconomic linkages among ASEAN-5 countries as well as among ASEAN-5
countries with the rest of the world in a multinational system. Through estimating
Global VAR models, the results show several key findings:
1) Generally, ASEAN-5 economies generally respond strongest to
real GDP shocks from China, Japan and the United State; especially, China has
played an increasing role to ASEAN-5 economy over the study period. However, the
responsiveness of ASEAN countries to external shocks varies across countries.
Additionally, there exist intra-regional spillovers within ASEAN-5 economies.
Regarding to the determinants of ASEAN-5 countries’ economic fluctuation, East
Asian countries and the United State have played an increasing role. In particular, the
main determinants from East Asia countries are real factors, while those from
countries outside the region are financial factors.
2) With a specific focus on external policy spillovers, it finds that
both intra- and inter-regional fiscal and monetary spillovers have significant impacts
on ASEAN-5 countries. External expansionary fiscal shocks generally cause a
significant increase in ASEAN-5 countries’ real GDP; especially, the effects of fiscal
spillovers from other East Asian countries (especially, China) are much stronger than
those from advanced Western countries. In contrast to fiscal spillover, the effects of
monetary spillovers are inconclusive and monetary spillovers from advanced Western
countries are stronger than those from East Asian countries. Interestingly, intra-regional policy spillovers among ASEAN countries are also found; particularly, intraregional monetary spillover seems to be stronger than intra-regional fiscal spillovers.
3) Due to inverse impact of external spillovers on ASEAN-5 countries
which indicates the need of policy coordination, the study tried to investigate the
impact of introducing a common interest rate on ASEAN-5 countries’ real GDP.
Generally, a common interest rate would lead to higher GDP growth rate in all
member countries in the long run. However, how much each member country could
gain depends on which interest rate is applied; such as Singapore and the Philippines
seem to gain more from a relatively higher interest rate while a relatively lower
common interest rate would lead higher growth rate in the case of Indonesia, Malaysia
and Thailand.
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Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--National Institute of Development Administration, 2018