GSDE: Dissertations

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Essays on financial development, income inequality and monetary policy : Evidence from regional-level in Thailand
Nattawan Pitakkochakorn; Saran Sarntisart (National Institute of Development Administration, 2025)
The purpose of this study can be classified into three objectives. First, the relationship between country risk, financial development, and income inequality in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines is examined using the World Inequality database from 1984 to 2022, alongside a regional analysis for Thailand. Empirical results from each country model reveal a link between financial development and a decline in income inequality in Thailand and the Philippines. In the case of Malaysia, financial development appears to exacerbate income inequality in certain periods. However, the relationship between political risk and income inequality is inconclusive. For the regional model, financial development and regional economic growth are significant and aligned with the country-level model. Second, this study explores how monetary policy may influence regional income inequality in Thailand via various transmission channels, based on data from 2011 to 2022. The results confirm the linkage between monetary policy and regional income inequality through aggregate income channels, housing price channels, and interest rate channels. These transmission mechanisms indicate that an accommodative monetary policy may help reduce disparities in regional income levels. The housing price channel shows a negative association with inequality, potentially reflecting improved access to credit via higher collateral values. In addition, Bangkok and the metropolitan exhibit greater responsiveness to monetary policy shifts compared to other regions. Third, this study investigates how monetary policy, operating through the indebtedness channel, influences household consumption across various income segments in Thailand. Additionally, we analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing disparities in income distribution. Our analysis is based on data derived from the biennial Household Socio-Economic Survey of Thailand, covering the years 2015 to 2021. The results from FGLS indicate that households with middle-income exhibit a stronger respond to monetary policy changes than other groups. In contrast, previous household debt does not significantly impact the consumption of lower-income and high-income households, suggesting that these groups of households are inelastic to changes in monetary policy. Increasing income inequality hampers the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption across all income levels. These findings offer guidance for policymakers at national and regional levels in understanding the link between financial development, monetary policy, and income inequality, particularly regarding the reduced effectiveness of monetary policy under high-income inequality.
Liquidity risk and expected returns in Thailand
Nirun Aramratanapan; Yuthana Sethapramote (National Institute of Development Administration, 2024)
Liquidity in the stock market is crucial for investment decisions, as it allows investors and issuers to meet their needs for investment, financing, and hedging. This, in turn, reduces investment costs and the overall cost of capital, creating a more efficient market environment. The aim of this dissertation is investigating the modern technique using computer science to resolve the liquidity problem and to formulate Machine learning and Deep learning models for the prediction of liquidity. Which is used for predicting the complexity problem in Thailand's Stock and Bond market which is the liquidity. Liquidity plays an important part in investment strategy and investor’s decisions on the security market. In addition, it affects the stock and bond price and returns on investment through the cost of liquidity or trading by transferring the ownership of stock and bond. The nature of liquidity in the stock and bond market is complex and characterized as volatile, unpredictable, dynamic, and non-linear. Predicting liquidity is a challenging task because it has many factors that affect them such as volume trading, Trading value and so on. We focus on the Thailand Stock Market from 2005 to 2023 and Thailand Bond Market from 2015 to 2024. Both of market, it is characterized by limited market tightness and markets depth, compounded by its relatively modest size. We introduce a forward-looking illiquidity measure, Expected Illiquidity (EI), represented by the bid-ask spread. In pursuit of robust liquidity prediction models, the authors construct and refine to build robust liquidity prediction models, Multilayer Perceptron, Mixed Deep Learning, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Multiple Linear Regression models, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms. We evaluate these models by comparing their out-of sample forecasting errors against a naïve estimate using current daily illiquidity. XGB and LSTM demonstrates superior predictive capabilities, with the lowest Mean iv Absolute Percent Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Mean Squared Error. Including lowest when compare the outcomes of comparing the developed model with other methods from the relevant literature. The outcomes of this research hold practical significance, providing a foundation for the development of decision support methods tailored to the unique dynamics of the Thailand Stock and Bond Market. Including helping stakeholders improve their decision-making and enhance market efficiency. By leveraging the predictive insights generated by the XGB, LSTM, stakeholders can enhance their decision-making processes, contributing to the continued evolution and efficiency of the Thailand Stock and Bond Market. Therefore, the implementation of this study focuses on a significant contribution to improving portfolio management, investors’ decisions, and policy tools. Regulators and central banks can closely monitor the expected development of liquidity and are able to take timely countermeasures, especially government policy. For example, regulators may actively revise the Act to stimulate capital market liquidity before the crisis as well as propose supporting measures. As can be seen in the mutual fund’s policy, allowing passing on the cost of redemptions to the redeeming shareholders before or during the crisis could apply because the fire sales struggling funds might impact the whole market. The regulator may incentivize funds to broadly use new policies and alternatives to relieve the liquidity crisis. This paper chooses the emerging market in the Stock Exchange Thailand (SET) due to its conduct of liquidity forecasting. The purpose of this paper is to develop a predictive model by deep learning to forecast liquidity risk in emerging markets and try to develop deep learning models for liquidity prediction in order to mitigate liquidity risks and suggest preventive measures. The significance of this research could benefit not only potential investors who apply modern technique to manage portfolios but also the regulators who can develop the tools for monitoring. We believe that the results presented in this manuscript will engross the readers of ABAC journal because the findings established a robust model for predicting the liquidity and identified key factors influencing the model predicting for capital market of Thailand.
Essays on telecommunication economics
Chate Khemakongkanonth; Tongyai Iyavarakul (National Institute of Development Administration, 2024)
This dissertation involves discussion of substitutability between pairs of potential services, demand estimation, interactions between firms in the past and the present, and roles of prices in the current competition. We draw implications on whether the firms seem to have engaged in several types of collusions. The dissertation comprises two major sections. The first pertains to consumption behaviors regarding selection of services among potentially substitutable services, whereas analyses in the second section focus on interactions between firms in the mobile market. Limiting the scope to just mobile market is justified by results from the first section. Thai mobile market has been liberalized since early 2000s. The market penetration exceeded 100% since 2010s, meanwhile the penetration in 2024 situated at almost 180%. This implies relative saturation of the market. Average revenue per user has been decreasing overtime. Mobile number portability has been available since 2010, thereby lowering switching costs and promoting competition. Many key events might have reshaped the competitive landscape including the key spectrum auction in 2015 where DTAC, the third largest mobile network operator (MNO), failed to win the much-needed spectrum. In early 2023, True, the former second largest MNO, officially merged with DTAC, rendering the retail mobile market duopolistic. Later the same year, AIS, the largest MNO, acquired TTTBB who provided fixed broadband access. There are two main objectives. The dissertation, first, aims to investigate which services constitute the same relevant market. We examine relations between demands for pairs of services in the Thai mobile market. We find lack of substantial substitutability between mobile and fixed broadband access and one-direction complementarity from over-the-top platform to traditional voice calls. Secondly, the dissertation aims to investigate (1) interactions between the firms; (2) roles of prices in shaping competition between operators in the context of switching. We find no evidence in support of explicit collusion between the firms, though estimation of demand and elasticities over the years indicates lowering intensity of competition via prices. Furthermore, we find that MNO switching leads to saving in monthly expenses to a considerable extent, but only some non-switching users have their monthly payments correspond to expressed levels of price sensitivity. Most of these users subscribe to the mobile tariff plan with higher search cost than other types. Although pricing plays a significant role in competition as seen in the recruitment of new subscriptions via MNO switching, our findings also hint at the possibility of firms’ exploitation of the common classification of consumers. The dissertation provides several policy implications. The lack of substantial substitutability between the mentioned pairs of services implies that these services should form a separate market. This is helpful for regulation by ways of market definition, which forms the basis for drawing the scope of competitive constraints faced by undertaking firms. The regulator is encouraged to promote the usage of mobile number portability and raise users’ engagement with their MNOs. Furthermore, the regulator should watch out for unfair promotional deals regarding their structure and implementation. Some deals may offer attractive introductory prices but come with subsequent price hikes. Lastly, our estimated demand system rationalizes a situation where one of the two largest firms by subscriptions perceives price as a strategic complement following the other largest firm’s price increase. Though we find that pricing remains an important facet with which firms compete, rationalizability of strategic complementarity between pricing behaviors is concerning especially after the True-DTAC merger in the telecom industry. The regulator is, thus, encouraged to monitor conduct, especially pricing of mobile tariff plans. Keywords: mobile services, broadband internet, over-the-top services for communications, substitutability, demand in mobile subscriptions, MNO switching, price discrimination, competition, explicit collusion, tacit collusion, Thailand
Essays on Intra-household allocation : Evidence from HART panel data
Pailin Suntigul; Tongyai Iyavarakul (National Institute of Development Administration, 2024)
This dissertation investigates resource allocation within extended Thai families, focusing on intergenerational transfers and time allocation decisions of elderly family members. The study uses balanced panel data from the Health, Aging, and Retirement in Thailand (HART) project, conducted by the Center for Aging Society Research (CASR) at the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA). The dataset is derived from biennial national surveys conducted in 2015, 2017, and 2020, covering 5,616 households across Thailand, with a focus on individuals aged 45 and older. A sample of 312 extended household units per wave (N=936) was selected, representing three generations, including grandparents, adult children, and grandchildren. The HART dataset includes information on household demographics, family transfers, occupation, income and expenditure, and life expectancy, providing insights into the economic behavior of extended families. This dissertation is organized around two primary objectives. The first objective examines the patterns and motivations behind intergenerational transfers, including both monetary and non-monetary resources, between grandparents, adult children, and grandchildren. Monetary transfers refer to financial assistance provided between family members, whereas non-monetary transfers refer to caregiving and time provided by family members to help meet various needs, including the provision of goods, health care, meal preparation, emotional support, and facilitation of leisure activities. By applying Becker’s household production theory and bargaining models, and utilizing fixed-effect logit models, the study reveals that downward transfers (from grandparents to younger generations) are primarily driven by altruism and familial obligations, while upward transfers (from adult children to grandparents) are influenced by a combination of altruism and bargaining power within the household. These findings emphasize the importance of economic interdependence and cooperative decision-making within extended families. The second objective examines the time allocation decisions of grandparents, specifically the trade-offs between income-generating activities, paid work in the labor market, and non-income-generating activities, unpaid work within the family. This study applies Becker’s model of time allocation and uses the Heckman Selection Model to address sample selection bias. The findings show that grandparents increasingly allocate their time to caregiving, particularly in households where co-residence and financial stability are present. These findings emphasize that financial constraints and family structure significantly influence grandparents’ decisions to reduce engagement in the labor market and allocate more time to unpaid work within the family. The primary contribution of this dissertation is the integration of intergenerational transfers and time allocation decisions within extended families, an area often neglected in traditional family economics models. This study expands the theoretical understanding of generational differences in motive preferences for resource allocation within the family, economic interdependence, and family structure. The investigation focuses on the economic contributions of grandparents in caregiving roles, their influence on caregiving practices, and the dynamics of multigenerational family structures. These findings refine existing theoretical frameworks, improving their relevance and applicability to real-world family dynamics. This dissertation provides policy recommendations based on empirical analysis and the family economics framework to address the inefficiencies in resource allocation within extended families, particularly in the areas of intergenerational transfers and the allocation of time. The proposed recommendations include flexible work options for the elderly, such as reduced working hours, part-time employment, and remote work, to reduce opportunity costs associated with the allocation of time. Additionally, tax incentives and housing subsidies are suggested to support grandparents who provide unpaid work, especially those who significantly contribute to the care of grandchildren, thereby easing the financial burden on multigenerational households. The expansion of Thailand’s Old Age Allowance is advised to decrease financial dependence among grandparents who lack pension coverage, ensuring they have a basic income to support their informal caregiving roles and maintain their well-being. Direct fiscal transfers for elderly caregivers are proposed to offset the opportunity costs associated with the allocation of time between paid work in the labor market and unpaid work in the family, particularly for those who shift from paid work to unpaid work, thus reducing their financial strain. Lastly, family-oriented social programs are recommended to strengthen intergenerational welfare by improving the efficiency of intergenerational transfers to promote economic stability within multigenerational families and reduce financial inequality. These programs would target low-income elderly caregivers through direct financial assistance and invest in skill development to increase their productive capacity, thus improving both informal caregiving efficiency and labor market participation. This dissertation is structured into five chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the study, outlining the research objectives, questions, and the socio-economic context of Thai households. Chapter 2 presents a comprehensive review of the literature on intra-household decision-making, discussing relevant theoretical frameworks and empirical studies related to resource allocation within familial structures. Chapter 3 presents the research methodology, including the data sources, identification strategies, and econometric models employed to examine intergenerational transfers and time allocation decisions. Chapter 4 presents the empirical findings, analyzing the patterns of both monetary and non-monetary resources transfers within extended Thai families, and investigates the time allocation decisions of elderly family members. Finally, Chapter 5 offers conclusions and policy recommendations based on the study’s findings, aimed at improving resource allocation and intergenerational welfare within Thai extended families.
An analysis of global value chain and the changing international economic landscape: Thailand’s participation in RCEP and CPTPP
Tasawan Khao-uppatum; Santi Chaisrisawatsuk (National Institute of Development Administration, 2024)
This study investigates Thailand's position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and its supply chain linkages within RCEP, CPTPP, and potential expansions of CPTPP involving India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China. The assessment of Thailand's industry positions within GVCs suggests a moderate increase in backward linkages from 1995 to 2018. Although Thailand’s GVC position has improved over the period, it remained relatively downstream compared to Japan and the US, regardless of the trade pattern shifting toward Asia, especially involving China, Japan, and the US. RCEP has potentially shown a more decisive role than CPTPP, particularly in the food, rubber, and plastic sectors, with a contribution from China as a key downstream trading partner. The following section analyzes Thailand’s participation in the GVCs dynamic over time. Following Thailand’s engagement in several existing and potential economic integrations, seven models were employed: RCEP, India, CPTPP, the US, the UK, China, and the UK+China. The relationships between domestic production and trade in intermediate and finished goods (exports and imports) across selected industries covering ICT, agriculture, textile, and automobile were investigated using the VAR model and Granger Causality analysis. Empirical findings indicate the significant roles of essential trading partners, such as India, the US, the UK, and China, with or without their involvement in trade agreements in which Thailand is a member party. The emergence of RCEP highlights strong forward linkages; i.e., an increase in the import of intermediate goods from RCEP members leads to rising production in Thailand. Potential participants in CPTPP could also enhance Thailand’s GVC position, with the results revealing possible forward and backward linkages. The impacts of COVID-19 on Thailand’s supply chain and its ability to respond were also investigated in this study. It is shown that the pandemic has induced some significant changes in the country’s supply chain across industries. At the same time, total production remained robust to meet domestic demand. There are some forward and backward linkages and alternations among trade sectors. The textile sector, for instance, experienced a substantial disruption and became increasingly dependent on domestic inputs. The role of economic integration, especially RCEP and CPTPP, is again exhibiting opportunity windows for Thailand to upgrade its GVC position by moving up the value chain. The expansion of economic integrations has some interesting policy implications. Thailand’s RCEP partnership has strengthened trade, especially in the rubber and plastic industry, with India possibly joining as a key downstream partner. Expanding RCEP to include India could further enhance these benefits. Moreover, although joining CPTPP poses challenges, it would integrate Thailand more deeply into GVCs, mainly if the US or China joined. Strengthening backward linkages with RCEP engagement and diversifying sourcing from China can further build the country’s resilient supply chain.
Essays on the monetary policy transmission in Thailand
Kanjana Chockpisansin; Yuthana Sethapramote (National Institute of Development Administration, 2024)
This study comprises two essays. The first essay employs a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression (MS-VAR) framework to analyze the role of the bank lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Thailand, considering regime shifts under different economic conditions. It examines whether monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects through the bank lending channel depending on the prevailing economic regime and evaluates the responses of various loan types to policy shocks. The findings from the MS-VAR models highlight the significance of the bank lending channel in monetary policy transmission. During stable economic conditions, policy tightening effectively influences real output, prices, and lending activities, with no evidence of a price puzzle, demonstrating the central bank’s effectiveness in maintaining economic stability. However, the impact of monetary policy diminishes during periods of heightened volatility, as seen during financial crises, when complex interactions among macroeconomic variables weaken the transmission of policy measures. In such volatile environments, conventional monetary policy tools, such as interest rate adjustments, may lose their effectiveness. This study suggests that unconventional measures or targeted lending programs can play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy. Initiatives by monetary authorities and commercial banks, such as soft loans or debt relief programs, could also help alleviate the crisis's impact on borrowers. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies, especially during economic instability. The second essay further examines the effects of monetary policy changes on the housing and real estate markets in Thailand. The findings from the MS-VAR models reveal the presence of two distinct regimes within the Thai housing market, leading to asymmetric impacts of monetary policy. Specifically, the analysis indicates a clear asymmetry in the effects of monetary policy shocks, represented by changes in the policy rate, on housing loans across different market segments. The contraction in housing loans is more prolonged during the low-volatility regime, or normal market conditions, compared to the high-volatility regime. This suggests that the effectiveness of monetary policy varies significantly across different economic environments. Hence, the presence of a nonlinear relationship between housing variables, economic indicators, and the monetary policy instrument highlights the need for caution in using traditional tools, such as the policy interest rate, to manage overheating in the housing and real estate markets. As a result, it is important to explore the effectiveness of unconventional monetary measures that specifically target certain market segments. These instruments may be more suitable for correcting imbalances within the housing market. Potential policy options include lowering Loan-to-Value (LTV) ceilings for targeted areas of concern and enforcing stricter Debt Service Ratio (DSR) requirements within the framework of responsible lending. Such measures would prompt financial institutions to more thoroughly evaluate customer affordability, thereby promoting responsible lending practices and reducing risks in the housing sector.
The long-term performance of private equity backed companies in Chinese market
Zhan, Mengyu; Sorasart Sukcharoensin (National Institute of Development Administration, 2022)
Academic research related to private equity has been focused on the study of initial underpricing and short-run performance. The first aim of this study is to analyze all the Chinese Initial Public Offering (IPOs) from 2010-2014, with the sample containing of 916 firms, to provide additional evidence on the long-run performance of IPOs invested by private equity. This research fulfills the gap that whether the long-term performance of IPOs enterprises invested by private equity exceed the IPOs without private equity on two aspects of market and operating performance. The study shows that for both market and operating performance for the Chinese IPOs depends on the time period and the methodology used. Firstly, for the market performance by using CAR (cumulative abnormal return) method, the result shows that mid-term (3 years) performance of private equity backed IPOs is lower than non-PE (private equity) backed. While for the long-term (5 years) performance of PE-backed IPOs is better than non-PE backed IPOs. On contrary, the BHARs (buy-and-hold returns) of PE backed IPOs is slightly lower than non-PE backed IPOs. Therefore, for the operating performance, only by Tobin’s Q method, the PE-backed IPOs is outstanding the non-PE backed IPOs. The second objective of this research is to study the influence of IPO prospectus information for the long-term performance of the IPO enterprises. The results show that the characteristics of the IPO: size of the issue, innovation patents, company industry area, hot market index-have a stable significant influence on the stock performance of companies for five years after IPO. On the other aspect: operating performance, parameters of research and development expense, growth in sales, company’s asset size and the hot market index are directly related to the performance after IPO. These results confirm some hypothesis for the explanation of the long-term performance of IPOs in Chinese capital market.
Media freedom and corruption
Tanrapan Tanavichcha; Tongyai Iyavarakul (National Institute of Development Administration, 2023)
The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of press freedom on corruption and analyze how internet freedom affects corruption. The empirical analysis involved an unbalanced panel of 118 countries from 1998 to 2017, covering a period of 20 years for press freedom and corruption. Additionally, an unbalanced panel of 46 countries from 2011 to 2020 was used to analyze internet access and corruption over a 10-year period. The results show that press freedom and its legal, political, and economic influences have a statistically significant negative effect on corruption, indicating that a free press reduces corruption. However, in the empirical analysis involving internet freedom and corruption, the study finds no significant effect. Furthermore, it reveals that countries with high exports of natural resources tend to experience increased corruption, while factors such as economic growth and political rights can reduce corruption. These results remain consistent in both the press and internet media sections of the study.
Valuing the attribute enhancements of urban park: a case of the King Rama IX international mangrove botanical garden, Thailand
Aekkapat Laksanacom; Udomsak Seenprachawong (National Institute of Development Administration, 2022)
The King Rama IX international mangrove botanical garden, Thailand provides a bundle of benefits, including a source for exchanging knowledge on mangrove forests and recreation opportunities. This study was applied a choice experiment to investigate the potential users’ preferences and willingness to pay for different educational programs and recreational enhancement projects in The King Rama IX international mangrove botanical garden, Thailand. The empirical results from conditional logit model show the potential users are willing to pay 25 Baht, 27 Baht, 89 Baht, and 102 Baht for improved museum design, information signs, recreation activities, and facilities, respectively. Two groups of visitors are targeted in this research: residents and non-residents. The results showed that the heterogeneity of preferences exists within each of these group. In particular, non-residents attain generally higher values for improvements than residents. For example, non-residents were willing to pay more for museum designs and information signs. It is also argued that the use of model with co-variate in choice experiment has advantage over the model without co-variate since the co-variate model was relaxed the condition of constant parameter for all respondents. The results suggest that the planning and management of this place subject to budget constraints should take into account the attributes of this botanical garden and the preferences of visiting citizens to improve their welfares.
The effects of venture capital network centrality on earnings management, profitability, and stock price during lockup of IPOs : evidence in the US market
Yosavee Niranvichaiya; Sorasart Sukcharoensin (National Institute of Development Administration, 2022)
This study investigates the effect of network centrality, which is a key important measure in social science for the level of connection and influence each actor has in the network, of the venture capital firm (VC), on earnings management level, choice of earnings management, subsequence economics performance, and long-term stock return of the VC-backed portfolio companies. The results of the study suggest that companies backed by VCs with higher network centrality level, or being more “centralized”, is more likely to use accrual-based earnings management, more likely to have higher subsequence economic performance, as measure by the difference in future return-on-assets, and is more likely to have a better long-term stock return, as indicated by higher buy-and-hold abnormal return.
Distributional impact of carbon taxation on household energy consumtion in Thailand
Supawan Saelim; Anan Wattanakuljarus (National Institute of Development Administration, 2018)
Distributional impact of a carbon tax on household demand can be relevant in terms of securing public acceptance of a carbon tax and clarifying the implications for policy design. Despite the growing literature about the impact of a carbon tax on the economy and environment, in-depth studies of distributional impact on the welfare of households are relatively scarce in Thailand. Although the distributional impact on households is only a part of the carbon tax story, it is very important for policy analysis, both in terms of securing public acceptance and policy design. Such policy design includes appropriate revenue-recycling options to reduce adverse effects on lowincome households and social objectives such as income inequality and poverty incidence. This study aims to estimate the distributional effects on households from changes in energy prices induced by a carbon tax, and explore the impact of the policy on social development indicators such as income inequality and poverty incidence in Thailand. The study simulates carbon tax scenarios and estimates distributional effects of the tax on household welfare, income inequality, and poverty rates based on household consumption. The study employs a microsimulation model incorporating the economy-wide effects of the tax on prices (through an input-output model) and consumers’ behavioral responses to changes in prices (through demand system estimations). The methods applied in this study include household energy demand estimation using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand system (QUAIDS) model to understand energy consumption behavior. In addition, the study also empirically examines the relationship between per capita welfare losses and a range of socioeconomic factors using multivariate regression analysis. The study utilizes monthly cross-sectional data of the national Household Socio-economic Survey (SES) for the years 2009, 2011 and 2013, and monthly consumer price indices for demand system estimation. The demand estimation results indicate that the pricing policy in the energy sector (e.g. through taxation) is likely to be ineffective in reducing energy consumption in the residential sector as the energy demand is inelastic. However, households are more responsive to reducing their consumption of transport fuels than electricity consumption when prices change. The results of the study also have useful implications for predicting behavioral responses and the welfare impact on households from changes in energy prices induced by other fuel taxes and energy-related policies aimed to sustainably incentivize the use of cleaner energy in the long run. In addition, socioeconomic factors, such as geographic region, labor market status, household structure and education, are significantly associated with individual welfare losses across energy and non-energy consumption types even after controlling for income. The results of a carbon tax simulation indicate that a carbon tax is progressive in Thailand under revenue-recycling scenarios of expanding social transfer programs. When carbon tax revenues are recycled through elderly pensions, the carbon tax could reduce the poverty rate and improve the welfare of households in the lowest quintile. The results imply that the distributional impacts of environmental taxes could result in favorable outcomes for income inequality and poverty reduction in developing countries. The study concludes that the concerns about the negative impact of environmental taxes on social objectives such as income inequality and poverty incidence in Thailand tend to be minimal, and less than what one might expect based on empirical results from developed countries. Lump-sum transfers of only a partial amount of carbon tax revenues to households can offset the negative effects on income inequality and poor households.
Property tax in Thailand : a case for value capture taxation
Kanokporn Saiyasittipanich; Adis Israngkura (National Institute of Development Administration, 2015)
This study presents a new financial resource for Thailand called "Property Value Capture” mechanism. The mechanism is applied to finance public infrastructure project through capturing either some or all of the "excess value" or the incremental value of real estate generated by a public scheme. This mechanism not only reduces government's total expenditures for public infrastructure projects, but also reduces the tax burden on the overall population. The first step in this study is to investigate the amount of economic rent for condominium projects located along the sky train station (Light Green Lines Extensions, On Nut to Bearing station) .The datasets used in this research have been collected from two sources. First, the data on market sale price and structural characteristics of the condominiums was obtained from property owners and brokers of the condominiums by interview and website search for the period from December 2013 to August 2014. Four Hundred forty-one (441) condominium units were randomly selected for our survey and were used to estimate the impact of the sky train station and other factors on property values. This study have applied the concept of Hedonic Pricing Method (HPM) to estimate the implicit price of the Light Green Lines Extensions and other factors by using two difference type of the functional forms; 1) log-linear, and 2) linear Box-Cox functional form. The implicit prices (or economic rents) of condominium units are found to be between 150.46 to 195.04 baht per unit for every meter closer to the sky train station. Therefore, condominiums located directly adjacent to the sky train station were roughly 150,460 to 195,040 baht more than an identical condominium located 1,000 meter away when considering the average value. The total amount of the economic rent for condominium projects located within 1,000 meter, 1,500 meter, and 2,000 meter of the sky train station is estimated roughly at 2,359,072,495.61 baht, 2,988,644,281.37 baht, and 3,378,377,226.87 baht respectively. While, the number of condominium projects in each area was 49, 59, and 69 projects respectively. The excess real estate value was derived directly from the construction of the Light Green Line Extensions. The second step in this research study is to apply a concept of a "betterment tax" imposed on property holders who received a direct and unique benefit from the Light Green Lines Extension in three assessment areas; 1,000 meter, 1,500 meter, and 2,000 from the sky train station. The total betterment tax burden from our estimation of 49 condominium projects, located within the 1,000 meter assessment area was equivalent to 592,704,431.85 baht or 25.12 percent of the economic rent. The total tax burden of the 59 condominium projects, located within the 1,500 meter assessment area equaled 408,918,475.90 baht or 13.68 percent of the implicit price. Whereas, the total amount of tax burden for condominiums located within the 2,000 meter assessment area, or 69 condominiums projects; was equal to 314,439,864.17 baht or 9.31 percent of the economic rent. The successful implementation a betterment tax strategy in Thailand depends upon four issues; 1) the betterment tax rate, should not be excessively high; otherwise the taxpayer will oppose a public development project in their neighborhood, 2) for social acceptance, the local government must actively work to promote the benefits, positive aspects and fairness of the tax, 3) Thai government should improve and provide a necessary technology for increasing an efficiency of land appraisal system, and 4) the Land Department should appraise a value of real-estate every year in order to obtain the real market price and other attributes of real-estate.
Valuing a high altitude mountain ecosystem and creating policy instruments for ecotourism development : a case study of Yulong mountain, China
Zhang, Zhuoran; Udomsak Seenprachawong (National Institute of Development Administration, 2015)
This dissertation consists of three connected parts: The first part is a research paper examines the tourism demand and assesses consumer surplus from visiting a unique tourist attraction site: glaciers in Mt. Yulong, Yunnan, China by using the Zonal Travel Cost Method (henceforth, ZTCM). I aim to uncover the use value of this particular site in tourism development. I divide domestic travelers into 20 groups based on the demographical and geographical characteristics of their place of residence. The empirical results show that the economic value of the glaciers in the tourism industry is more than 3 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY), roughly equivalent to 500 million dollars at the exchange rate of March 2016, which is approximately 10% of the local GDP. The high estimated value of the glaciers suggests that some conservation policy interventions are necessary. The second research paper attempts to elicit the maximum willingness to pay by the travelers for the ecotourism development, which would conserve the glaciers and the ecosystem in Mt. Yulong. The survey was conducted in Mt. Yulong among the travelers during June to December 2015, and the focused group talk technique was applied. A total of 1,500 survey questionnaires were distributed and 889 returned with completed information. The estimated willingness to pay by each traveler’s averages around 220 CNY, which is equivalent to 35 US Dollars at the exchange rate of March 2016. This amount was almost twice higher as the entrance fee to the site and indicates that the travelers are highly concerned with the environmental quality during their traveling experiences and are in favor for the eco-friendlier tourism. The third part of this dissertation is a discussion paper that aims to compare different techniques of intervention instruments based on the particular situations in Lijiang and Mt. Yulong. This paper combines researches and recommendations from the environmental scientists of Chinese Science Academy and the economic attributions uncovered from the previous two parts of this dissertation into consideration. Even though various market base instruments have their unique advantages and might all be achieving in the case of Mt. Yulong, the Payments for Ecosystem Service (henceforth, PES) package seems to be most effective in addressing the environmental conservation issues as well as enhancing the economic development.
Essays on income tax evasion
Lee, Jeong Dae; Sasatra Sudsawasd (National Institute of Development Administration, 2018)
Tax evasion has a direct impact on government revenues and therefore capacity to provide public goods. Moreover, tax evasion imposes a welfare cost on society by having to resort to more distortionary taxes and discouraging financial transparency, both of which result in inefficient allocation of resources. If tax evasion is concentrated in certain segments of society, equity concerns also arise. The objective of my dissertation is to enhance our understanding of tax evasion-why people cheat the government, old and new ways of cheating, and which remedies may be effective. In Chapter 2, “Cheating the government: Does taxpayer perception matter?”, I ask whether people cheat (in the form of misreporting their income to tax authorities) because they know that they can get away with it or because they genuinely feel that the rules are unfair. Specifically, I incorporate taxpayer perception into a widely used consumption-based method for estimating income tax evasion. Compared to the standard method which distinguishes taxpayers only by their occupational or income type as a way of measuring their “ability” to misreport income, the refined method introduces taxpayers who may be “able but unwilling” to cheat because they feel fairly treated with respect to public services and compared to other taxpayers. Applied to a longitudinal data for Korea (2007-2015), the standard method yields a uniform tax evasion rate of 13 percent, but the refined method provides a range of 7 to 25 percent based on taxpayer perception. This implies that strategies for improving tax compliance must be tailored to different motivations for tax evasion. In Chapter 3, “Hide-and-seek: Can tax treaties reveal offshore wealth?”, I highlight that information asymmetry becomes a far greater challenge in a multiplejurisdiction context, where offshore centres can facilitate tax evasion. In response, governments have introduced new tax treaties to facilitate the exchange of financial account information between jurisdictions, including traditional tax havens. Based on international banking statistics, I examine whether these treaties have had a material impact on offshore tax evasion. Based on panel regression analysis, I find that crossborder deposits in traditional haven jurisdictions, taken as a proxy for offshore evasion in the literature, have declined substantially. However, I also find that these offshore assets are being relocated to few non-compliant tax havens and moreover, “non-haven” offshore financial centres, most notably the United States, which has yet to commit to reciprocal and automatic exchange of information and establish a public register of ultimate beneficial ownership.
Macroeconomic linkage and policy coordination in Asean : a global var analysis
Dau, Thi Mai Lein; Yuthana Sethapramote (National Institute of Development Administration, 2018)
This dissertation aims to comprehensively investigate international macroeconomic linkages among ASEAN-5 countries as well as among ASEAN-5 countries with the rest of the world in a multinational system. Through estimating Global VAR models, the results show several key findings: 1) Generally, ASEAN-5 economies generally respond strongest to real GDP shocks from China, Japan and the United State; especially, China has played an increasing role to ASEAN-5 economy over the study period. However, the responsiveness of ASEAN countries to external shocks varies across countries. Additionally, there exist intra-regional spillovers within ASEAN-5 economies. Regarding to the determinants of ASEAN-5 countries’ economic fluctuation, East Asian countries and the United State have played an increasing role. In particular, the main determinants from East Asia countries are real factors, while those from countries outside the region are financial factors. 2) With a specific focus on external policy spillovers, it finds that both intra- and inter-regional fiscal and monetary spillovers have significant impacts on ASEAN-5 countries. External expansionary fiscal shocks generally cause a significant increase in ASEAN-5 countries’ real GDP; especially, the effects of fiscal spillovers from other East Asian countries (especially, China) are much stronger than those from advanced Western countries. In contrast to fiscal spillover, the effects of monetary spillovers are inconclusive and monetary spillovers from advanced Western countries are stronger than those from East Asian countries. Interestingly, intra-regional policy spillovers among ASEAN countries are also found; particularly, intraregional monetary spillover seems to be stronger than intra-regional fiscal spillovers. 3) Due to inverse impact of external spillovers on ASEAN-5 countries which indicates the need of policy coordination, the study tried to investigate the impact of introducing a common interest rate on ASEAN-5 countries’ real GDP. Generally, a common interest rate would lead to higher GDP growth rate in all member countries in the long run. However, how much each member country could gain depends on which interest rate is applied; such as Singapore and the Philippines seem to gain more from a relatively higher interest rate while a relatively lower common interest rate would lead higher growth rate in the case of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
Oil price shocks and sector returns in the stock exchange of Thailand
Krit Theplib; Komain Jiranyakul (National Institute of Development Administration, 2019)
This thesis is aimed to contribute to the literature through investigating linkages between the volatility of oil prices and Thailand stock market returns in various industries. Economic theories have established that oil price shocks could create chain reaction effects on the real economic activities. Theoretically, oil price shocks is one of the factors that impact the performance of the Thai stock market. In this thesis, the GARCH approach was employed to determine the impacts of the oil price shocks on each industrial sector listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and on the SET index itself. We analyzed the trend of returns on each industry index from July 2004 to September 2015 using daily data. Overall, we found significant evidence that oil price shocks can alter volatilities of the eight industry indices in terms of both direction and size.
Currency carry trade in emerging market countries
Sitthidej Bumrungsub; Wisit Chaisrisawatsuk (National Institute of Development Administration, 2015)
This dissertation comprises of two purposes: 1) to examine the causal relationship and the volatility spillover between returns of carry trade strategies and equity markets; and 2) to demonstrate the time-varying risk premium of the carry trade. The Granger causality test under the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the multivariate DCC-GARCH (1,1) are employed for the first purpose. The second one adopts the multi-factor model and the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTAR) for pricing carry trade returns which depend on the returns of equity and bond factors. The risk exposures to factors are allowed to vary across FX volatility regimes. The daily data of ASEAN-5 emerging markets and developed economies span from August 2006 to March 2015, covering 2,251 observations.
The parental time allocation for the Thai economy
Pittaya Gomolman; Wisit Chaisrisawatsuk (National Institute of Development Administration, 2015)
In the altruism hypothesis, parents care about the well-being of their children. They invest both their material resources and time into raising their children because they gain utility from such behaviors. Many economic literatures have focused on the material part of investment in children, such as the education expenditure and bequests. However, time investment is thought to be equally important to the development of children’s skills and abilities. The parental time allocation for child care can affect basic cognitive and behavioral skills of a child, which in turn will have an impact, together with formal schooling, on his human capital and on his productivity. Since parent’s time devoted to child care is taken away from leisure and/or paid employment, parents consider the benefits and costs of time spent on activities and make decisions to allocate their time between the activities in the best possible way that gives them maximum utility. These decisions are based on private returns and costs. From the macroeconomic perspective, a social planner would choose the amounts of parental time for child care so that it results in an optimal solution to achieve a social objective. This social optimal parental time allocation for child care may not coincide with the parents’ decisions in a competitive economy. This draws our motivation to find out what the social parental allocation for child care would be in order to achieve social objectives, in particular, maximizing the total output and minimizing inequality. Our first objective in this study is to construct an economic model with intergenerational transfer within the family that includes bequests, education and parental time allocation for child care, to mimic the earning and income inequality of Thailand. The second objective is to determine the parental time allocation for the Thai economy regarding different social goals such as minimizing earning inequality, minimizing wealth inequality and maximizing total output.
The economics of preserving a world heritage site : the case of Vat Phou and associated ancient setlements within the Champasak cultural landscape, Champasak province, Lao P.D.R.
Kaysone Chansina; Udomsak Seenprachawong (National Institute of Development Administration, 2015)
Heritage resources are important to society due to their historic, educational, tourist and community value. In order to preserve and maintain these resources for current and future generations, understanding human interactions and values are important. For that purpose, this dissertation utilizes economic tools and techniques to identify factors that influence heritage values, and quantifies the economic values of the general public regarding heritage recreation and preservation. Three empirical studies are presented in this dissertation: Empirical Study 1 measures the economic value of Vat Phou and Associated Ancient Settlements within the Champasak Cultural Landscape (Vat Phou), using zonal travel cost method (ZTCM); Empirical Study 2 estimates the willingness-to-pay of Lao citizens to preserve the historic structures at Vat Phou, using contingent valuation methodology (CVM); Empirical Study 3 analyzes the relationship between Lao citizens’ socio-demographic characteristics and their willingness to pay behavior toward the value of cultural landscape (Vat Phou) by applying an economic application discussed in Empirical Study 1 and 2.
Public funding system for Thailand higher education
Nuttaya Yuangyai; Amornrat Apinunmahakul (National Institute of Development Administration, 2016)
This study employs a two-stage double-bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate efficiency of Thai public Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and investigate the relationship between public funding and HEIs’ efficiency. The results from the first-stage analysis disclose a rather high level of average teaching efficiency score, but low level of average research efficiency score. From the analysis of scale efficiency, the findings reveal that teaching inefficiency of Thai public HEIs is mainly caused by inappropriate production scale. Contrarily, research inefficiency of Thai public HEIs is mainly caused by the ability to manage their resources for producing research but not the scale of production. The results from the second-stage analysis indicate that there are two important factors having positively contribution to teaching and research efficiency: the ratio of public funding to Full Time Equivalent Students (FTEs) and the degree of HEIs’ management autonomy and flexibility. Only budgetary factor negatively influencing on teaching and research efficiency is the percentage of HEIs’ investment expenditure. Besides, the government’s share in HEIs’ revenue has negative effects on teaching efficiency, but positive effects on research efficiency. This study, therefore, suggests to Thai government that (a) public funding to HEIs based on numbers of FTEs should be increased and mechanism to allocate public funding should be related to HEIs’ performance; (b) to improve teaching and research efficiency, HEIs should be encouraged to increase mobilization of resources by providing an environment and incentive which makes clear about the benefits of educational support; (c) the revolution of the public HEIs to an autonomous status should be strongly encouraged by: separating out the two roles of national government agencies in the HE Sector; aligning academic and non-academic autonomy; strengthening accountability mechanisms; creating the enabling environment for HE Reform. Finally, to improve HEIs efficiency the following specific changes should be implemented for inefficient HEIs to approach the best practices: improving teaching quality; improving faculty incentive and evaluation systems; constructing better align curricula and instruction with labour market needs; developing HEIs-based research efforts being consistent with individual institutional missions; and improving public-private and cross-border research partnerships.

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